Baccarat Strategy – How to Lower Baccarat’s House Edge

Baccarat, a game of rituals and Bond-dipped mystique, attracts high rollers from Monte Carlo to Macau and generates more revenue on the Las Vegas Strip than any other table game. But beneath the mystique, Baccarat is one of the simplest casino games to play, with a house edge that is less than one percent.

The object of baccarat is to bet on which hand will total closest to nine. Players place bets on either the Player, Banker or Tie hand. The game starts when the dealer deals two cards to the Player and Banker. If the total is a nine, there’s a winner; otherwise, a third card must be drawn following specific rules. The game’s simplicity and low house edge have made it a popular choice for many players, even though professional gamblers and mathematicians advise against the “tie” bet, which offers a higher payout but also has a much higher house edge.

Some baccarat players try to reduce the game’s built-in edge by using advanced strategy. For example, the Martingale betting system involves doubling your bet after each loss, hoping that a win will eventually cover all past losses and yield a profit equal to your original bet. But this strategy is only effective if you have a large enough bankroll and the discipline to follow it through.

A more sophisticated approach to baccarat involves pattern recognition and a technique called edge sorting, in which players identify manufacturing inconsistencies in the backs of the cards, which can improve their chances of winning. Phil Ivey is famous for this approach, which was banned by casinos in 2012. Nevertheless, edge sorting can still be a lucrative strategy if you have the skills and resources to master it.

While a devoted Baccarat player might be able to lower the game’s house edge by employing these techniques, most players have no hope of beating it in the long run. This is because the game has a built-in advantage of 1.06%, and no betting system can overcome this fundamental obstacle.

In addition to the regular bets on the player, banker and tie, baccarat players can also place side bets on the player pair or banker pair. These bets pay out according to a predetermined set of rules (independent of the regular bets), and they have a lower house edge than the player or banker bets. However, they are not covered in this study because they are considered to be high-risk side bets and do not contribute to the overall game’s house edge. This study is the first to quantitatively examine baccarat gamblers’ adherence to these trend strategies by tracking their behavior via real casino data. The results show that baccarat gamblers tend to follow a “follow the trend” strategy, but this practice has little measurable impact on their winnings in the short term. The game’s built-in house edge means that it is mathematically impossible to achieve consistent winning sessions unless you have an advantage play technique, which is rare and difficult in baccarat.